Things are beginning to heat up for suppliers of heating oil and other fuels, as they are busy making rounds of deliveries. There’s no clear consensus, though, about where the price of oil may be headed this winter.

On Oct. 20, John Rymes, vice president of Rymes Propane & Oils Inc., said, “The market is so complex that it is impossible to know where the market is going.”

Inventory for oil is high right now, he said, so prices should be lower. But for some reason, the cost is on the rise.

“If you look at the last three weeks, the market’s gone crazy,” he said.

The normal indicators, such as supply and demand, aren’t dictating the market right now, Rymes said. It may have something to do with the unrest in the Middle East and elsewhere, he said.

On Thursday, Doug Kenney, manager of Rymes’ Antrim branch office, said the price of home heating oil just went up again.

“It’s taken a huge jump in the last few days,” he said. “Every time you have a conflict in Iran, if they think the oil wells are in danger, the price of oil goes up. It’s all global.”

The average price of heating oil in New Hampshire has risen from $2.343 per gallon on Oct. 5 to $2.434 on Oct. 19 for credit purchases, according to the N.H. Office of Energy and Planning Web site, www.nh.gov/oep/programs/energy.

In a phone survey of area suppliers, the Ledger-Transcript found that on Thursday, Rymes’ price for number two heating oil was $2.429 a gallon for cash payments. At Red’s of Jaffrey it was $2.289 a gallon. On Friday, the cost was $2.399 at A.W. Peters Inc. in Peterborough and $2.499 at Allen and Mathewson Energy Corp. in Rindge.

The oil delivery businesses that serve New Hampshire, Kenney said, are affected in the same way by the price fluctuations in the world market for oil because “we all basically draw from the same centers.”

Rymes’ oil prices to its customers are set in its corporate offices in Pembroke, he said, and the company has branches throughout the state that service all of New Hampshire and parts of Massachusetts, Vermont and Maine.

Propane, Rymes said, is being traded at record low levels, which may have something to do with the fact that it isn’t easily traded by the public the way oil is.

“So right now, propane is a bargain,” he said. “And, it’s better for the environment.”

He said his company can offer better discounts on propane than it can on heating oil, especially for those who buy in large volumes.

Rymes, whose family business was founded in Antrim and is now based in Concord and Pembroke, said many customers are considering converting to propane heating systems for their homes and businesses.

The average price of propane in New Hampshire for credit purchases was $2.553 per gallon on Oct. 19, up from $2.500 per gallon on Oct. 5, according to the N.H. Office of Energy and Planning Web site.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook issued on Oct. 6 projects that the average household will spend $84 less this winter for heating than last year because fuel costs have come down and because a somewhat milder winter is expected. It is anticipated that propane and natural gas users will see more savings than those who use oil. Still, the future of the world energy market is as uncertain as the economic recession’s depth and persistence, according to the outlook report.

“It’s a tough market out there,” Kenney said. “A lot of people are going to be hurting trying to fill their propane and oil tanks this winter. I feel bad for them.”

“There’s fuel assistance, though,” Kenney added, referring to the federal Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, which the state contracts with nonprofit community action agencies in the state to distribute.

Tim Allen, co-owner of Allen and Mathewson, said the burden on people trying to heat their homes or apartments is a little lighter this year, but for many the financial challenge goes on.

“That’s still a huge part of our business — just trying to get paid,” Allen said yesterday. “And it’s not just the price of the products, it’s the economy as well.”

Oil was selling for $4.50 a gallon in the summer of 2008, he said, and it was impossible for most people to keep up with their payments. Midway through the 2008-2009 winter, people were still recovering from the price spike, Allen said, but it helped that the price had come down by then.

“It’s still volatile compared to where it was years ago,” Allen noted about the fluctuations in price for oil. Ten years ago, he said, the daily price change was no more than a cent, compared with 10 cents today.

“It’s just like buying a stock. It’s based on the [New York Mercantile Exchange], the commodities market,” he explained.

It’s not uncommon for his company to see midday price changes as its trucks are waiting in line at oil distribution centers.

Allen said it’s the oil producers that make the real money, not the deliverers and end-retailers.

“We make pennies. Any end retailer is just making pennies,” he said. “We try to make 30 to 35 cents a gallon for heating oil.”

Based on information from his suppliers, Allen said he’s hoping the price of oil stays between $2 and $2.50 this winter. In the last three weeks, the price has gone up 30 cents, he said.

“Most are expecting prices to stay in the neighborhood of where they are now,” he said. “It’s a big neighborhood, though.”

A price change of 50 cents up or down is within the realm of possibility, he said, adding, “The crystal ball is cloudy for sure.”