As we pass the six-month anniversary of the start of the Russia/Ukraine war, it seems appropriate to take stock of the current situation and of what might be on the horizon. Bearing in mind the constant uncertainties inherent in the international arena, particularly during times of war, there are some general projections that can be offered.
Firstly, the hostilities will likely drag on for an extended time. Though the conflict has not reached a frozen state yet, similar to other post-Soviet inter-ethnic fault lines like those in Nagorno-Karabakh or Georgia/Ossetia, there has been only minor movement by either side since Russia’s capture of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in early summer. In fact, lately the momentum, meager as it may be, seems to be on the Ukrainian side, as Kiev is successfully pressing the Russians around the strategic city of Kherson in the country’s south. Combined with multiple attacks on Russian military targets in Crimea, the recent Ukrainian activity has apparently stymied any Russian plans for a major offensive in the short term.
All the news from the battlefield is not necessarily in favor of the blue and yellow, however, as the fate of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest in Europe, is still up in the air. While most experts don’t fear a Chernobyl-type catastrophe, common sense dictates that high-powered artillery battles and nuclear power infrastructure are not a marriage made in safety heaven. Moreover, Ukrainian cities constantly live in fear of random, long-range Russian missile strikes. Additionally, as the current stalemate continues, Russian President Vladimir Putin will be under increasing domestic pressure to regain the offensive, potentially making the use of tactical nuclear weapons a more-acceptable risk to the Kremlin.
On the positive side of the ledger, the late-July agreement in Istanbul to open corridors in the Black Sea for the export of Ukrainian foodstuffs, as well as Russian products, has been holding. According to Aug. 22 reporting by the BBC, 630,000 tons of Ukrainian foodstuffs have been successfully exported via the Black Sea since Aug. 1. Even though this represents only a fraction of the Ukrainian stocks ready for shipment, the resumption of this supply line has been welcomed by dependent countries in the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa. The fate of this agreement will likely depend in large part on the level of intensity of the combat in the coming weeks and months. A continued lull/stalemate favors safe passage of ships on the Black Sea, while increased fighting, particularly along Ukraine’s southern coast, would significantly imperil the maritime traffic.
Another salient aspect of the conflict going forward will be the ability of the West to maintain solidarity in its financial, military and public support for Ukraine. There are already fissures developing in the European Union (EU), mostly as a result of Hungarian leader Viktor Orban’s prioritization of cheap Russian energy over EU solidarity. While the rest of the continent has joined ranks to counter the Russian invasion, a cold upcoming winter with energy rationing will certainly test European resolve.
In the mid-to-long term, it will be increasingly difficult for Western leaders to galvanize their citizens’ support for policies designed to punish Russia which entail economic and personal sacrifice at home. Most countries in Central and Eastern Europe with tragic, relatively recent memories of Russian occupation are more likely to accept those hardships than many in Western and Southern Europe, which never had the opportunity to experience first-hand the ruinous consequences of the Russian yoke. With the upcoming midterm elections in the United States primarily focused on domestic issues, it is clear that our attention is also starting to drift from the battlefields of Central Europe.
In the final analysis, the war will presumably go on until one or both of the sides reaches a point of diminishing returns in pursuing further hostilities. Putin has backed Russia into a dangerous corner from which he will try to extricate his country; concurrently, his counterpart in Kiev, VolodymyrZelensky, seems understandably intent on retaking as much Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory as possible. Consequently, though it would be hopeful to project an end-of-war scenario in the near future, at present both countries appear primed to continue the fight.
Robert Beck of Peterborough served for 30 years overseas with the United States government in embassies in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. He now teaches foreign policy classes at Keene State College’s Cheshire Academy for Lifelong Learning.