As the Ukraine/Russia war grinds inexorably into its second summer, a sober analysis of the probable endgame scenarios for the conflict, and their potential consequences, is warranted.  Put simply, the most likely outcomes to the war fall into the categories of win, lose or draw. All present unique mid- to long-term challenges to the international community.

Scenario 1: Ukraine wins, Russia loses – It is safe to state that this is the preferred outcome by the overwhelming majority of the American public as well as the coalition of primarily Western countries supporting the Ukrainians. Per this script, Kiev recovers all of its territory previously occupied by the Russians as Moscow suffers a humiliating military defeat. In Ukraine, the task of rebuilding the country would begin with no clear indication of who or how that monumental endeavor would be financed.

Before the euphoric dust settles in Kiev, however, dangerous consequences would likely arise. First, such an inglorious defeat would likely cost Vladimir Putin his job. A truism of Russian history is that Kremlin leaders who lose a major conflict don’t have a particularly long shelf life. Before we celebrate Putin’s demise, we must ask what comes next. A post-defeat coup d’etat could ignite a civil war in the country with the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that the next leader in Moscow will be less belligerent or more rational than the current occupant. In other words, be careful what we ask for. 

Scenario 2: Russia wins, Ukraine loses – Let’s suppose that over the next two to three years Moscow wears down Kiev and the West, in the process taking control of the majority, if not all, of Ukrainian territory. The shockwaves from that eventuality would be felt across the world, from the Taiwan Strait to the young democracies of Central Europe to the U.S. political arena to the expansionist plans of would-be autocrats the world over. 

Under this scenario, Ukraine would cease to exist as an independent nation, releasing a new wave of refugees into neighboring countries, and raising the specter of future Russian aggression. The United States and its allies would be forced to match the Russian threat with all means necessary to ensure that this new Iron Curtain would not advance further west. At the same time, Washington would be faced with a more assertive China, intent on following the Russian example to finally bring Taiwan back into the Middle Kingdom. The potential for a new “Cold War on steroids” would be real. 

Scenario 3: Draw – Unless something dramatic happens on the battlefield this spring and summer, some form of diplomatic solution is probably the most-likely conclusion to the current conflict, and the best the Russians can hope for. Amidst all of his military and political challenges, the one advantage that Putin does have is time. He believes that support for Ukraine will eventually diminish, particularly in the United States as the 2024 presidential campaign heats up. 

Make no mistake, a negotiated settlement in which Moscow maintains authority in some Ukrainian territory would, in fact, be a “small w” win for the Russians.  Putin would use such an outcome as justification for the war, likely keeping him in power for the foreseeable future. 

In the meantime, the United States and its European allies would be faced with the daunting challenge of containing a Russian threat that the leaders in the Baltics, Warsaw, Prague and other regional capitals would most certainly view as existential to their democracies. They know well that frozen conflicts eventually thaw. 

Of course, there is one more potential scenario -- a wider war involving some combination of NATO against Russia, Iran in the Persian Gulf region, North Korea and South Korea, and China in the South China Sea or Taiwan strait. The potential consequences of this apocalyptic nightmare make the aforementioned win, lose, or draw storylines seem like a geopolitical walk in the park. 

Robert Beck of Peterborough served for 30 years overseas with the United States government in embassies in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. He now teaches foreign policy classes at Keene State College’s Cheshire Academy for Lifelong Learning.

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